Monthly conviction — July 2026

US GDP Q2 2026 & June PCE: what the data tells the Fed

Q2 GDP at +2.4% annualised and June core PCE at 2.5%: the soft-landing thesis is confirmed, lifting the probability of a first Fed cut in September.

Read the full analysis → 31 July 2026•9 min
Monetary policy

FOMC July 2026: the Fed holds rates, gold and bonds rally

29 July 2026 • 8 min
Allocation

Q2 2026 earnings: five signals to reposition your H2 allocation

24 July 2026 • 9 min
Bonds

ECB: inflation below 2% — is the tightening cycle over?

22 July 2026 • 8 min
Market data

Markets dashboard

Updated: 8 May 2026, close
Equities
IndexLastWk.YTD
CAC 408 113-1,1%-0,5%
S&P 5007 376+0,8%+8,2%
Nasdaq29 235+2,3%+15,8%
Stoxx 505 912-1,0%+4,2%
Nikkei62 714+1,4%+14,2%
MSCI World4 280+0,5%+8,0%
Commodities
AssetPriceWk.YTD
Gold4 715 $+0,5%+9,5%
Brent101 $-5,8%+36,5%
Silver57,79 $-3,1%-20,5%
Copper6,15 $/lb—+14,9%
Currencies
PairPriceWk.YTD
EUR/USD1,1795-0,2%+0,7%
EUR/GBP0,8647+0,1%+0,8%
EUR/CHF0,9147—-3,6%
USD/JPY156,62—+0,4%
EUR/JPY184,73——
GBP/USD1,3640——
Rates & sovereigns
InstrumentLevelChg.Jan.
ECB2,00%—-100bp
UST 10Y4,36%-4bp-10bp
Bund 10Y3,23%——
OAT 10Y4,00%——
Risk indicators
VIX
17,5
Moderate
Systemic stress
17,2
Calm
Spread IG
92bp
Neutral
Spread HY
342bp
Elevated
On watch
High
US Inflation (July CPI)
12 August — Consensus 3.4% —
High
US Jobs (August NFP)
4 September — Unemployment & wages —
High
Fed Meeting (FOMC)
16 September — Rates at 3.50–3.75% —
All our analyses

Markets, economy & convictions

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